Is the Real Estate Market Going to Crash anytime soon?

It has been the question that everyone is asking for the past 10 years, and the market has proven many of us wrong over and over.  Since the last market crash in 2008-2010, many have attempted to answer this questions. I myself included, and have I been wrong – YES!!!

I have been following the market trend, and created my own graphs for as long as could remember.  The engineering mind of mine never left me, even after I left the high tech industry.  I have found it useful in helping my clients make the best informed decisions.

For general purpose, I am only sharing the statistic for Single Family Residence (SFR) in Santa Clara County, here. Between 2005-2012 the average # of home for sale was 4,076 per month. Between 2013-2019, the average dropped to 1,378 home for sale.  And within the last 2 years 2019-2021, that average drop to 859 homes for sale only!    For a County of roughly 1.9M people, do you think there is still a high demand for housing? 

If you have lived in the Bay Area long enough to experience the market crash in 2008-09, you may remember how fast it recovered!  The data is not showing me that will “crash” anytime soon.   Why? 

The crash in 2008 was mostly due to the subprime lending crisis offered at that time.  When the average borrowers can buy a home at “Zero-Down” and/or with an “Option-ARM” loan programs, it was a great way for the average family to buy vs rent.  When the “Optional” interest rate adjusted to the market level, most were no longer able to pay their mortgages, thus the foreclosures and short-sale!   I have looked and shared market data via my blogs, etc.  and I can let you know that most homeowners that purchased their homes with 20% down payment did not lose their home during that time.   I am proud to say that none of my clients ever foreclosed or short-sale their homes during that past 20 years.

After the reformed of the mortgage industry in ~ 2011, almost all lenders will lend 80%, requiring borrowers to bring in 20% down payment.  The risk is therefore with the homeowner, as most will not walk away, and lose their 20% equity in their home.   If you are buying a home to live in and plan to keep it for 5+ years, you need to capitalize of the low interest we still have.   Long term risks for real estate investment (primary home or rental)  are minimal to none.   If you are an investor, looking to “flip”, your guesses are as good as good your risk tolerance!  

There are still many buyers looking for a home while the interest rates are still low.  If you are thinking of selling, maybe 2022 is your best year!  As interest rates go up, the buying power will drop, and that could mean a “slow down”…  I do not expect a drop or “crash” that we saw in 2008-09 where the median price drop from $800,000 to $400,000.

Love to hear your thoughts… and if I could help get you home sold for the highest, please contact me.

Nick Pham, Broker, 01365281

#topsanjoserealtor #sanjoserealeste #realestatemarket #markettrend #marketcrash #optionarm

Is the Real Estate Market Correction Coming?

It is without doubts that there are a lot of talks about the market “crash”, the market “correction” are coming due the growth we have seen this past few years, even during this COVID pandemic! Most believe that there is a cycle to every investment markets, including real estate, and what goes up, must come down. What do you believe? Here are a few graphs to help with your predictions…. Hope your crystal ball is better than mine!

From my point of view, we do NOT have the same market as we did in 2006-2009, where buyers even have to compete with more aggressively. During those years, there were a lot of buyers that could buy homes with “ZERO” down with lenders offering the 80/20 loan programs. Or the “Option-ARM” where buyers can pay minimum mortgage payments at far below current interest rates, and roll the additional interest into their principal. When a buyer can qualify for the minimum payment, with no money down – it beats renting… When the “Optional” mortgage payments were no longer, and everyone had to face payment reality @ 6.000-7.000% interest, those buyers could not afford the payments, and when you invest nothing, you lost nothing!!! So the foreclosures, the bankruptcies “wave” was the inevitable.

Forwarding to 2021, when “fixed” interest rates are at rock-bottom and that most are required to invest 10-20% of their own funds into a home, it would be difficult for homeowner to give up their own equities. Don’t forget, the job market also went from the “dot COM” to the “dot BOM” during 2006-2010 period. If Google is investing billions of dollars into the area, and Apple, and Facebook and… What’s the chance of the market “crashing”? How about a “Correction”, what does it really mean? Love to hear your thoughts…


Nick Pham
Your referrals are greatly appreciated
Real Estate & Mortgage Broker Since 2001
CA DRE: 01365281 |  NMLS ID: 242768
PN Real Estate Group |  CA DRE: 01885945
PN Mortgage Group  |  NMLS ID: 364372
Direct: 408.425.5304  |  Email: nick@nickpham.com
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Is the Market Going to Cool Down Anytime Soon?

Anyone who has been looking for a new home during COVID, knows that the real estate market across the nation is still super red hot as we head into the typical busy summer months. If you have been following my blogs, you know that I work hard and follow the local market trend, in order to help my clients to right decision.

Here is a historical graph of the average fixed interest rates, that perhaps is the main vehicle that drive the average price for homes up, and therefore the decline in housing supply. When the market crashed in 2008-2010, there were many alternative loan programs available, including: option ARMs, 80/10/10, etc. Are we heading down the same path?

In recent months, I am seeing more “alternative doc” loan program being introduce. Is this the same precursors we saw in 2008??? You really have to fully understand all the current loan programs to see that there is a major difference between what we see today vs the option ARMs and some of the alternative loans offered over 10yrs ago! There are really no lenders that would offers buyers to purchase homes with little or no down payment, except for the few Government-back loans.

Most buyer/borrower would need to have enough of a down payment 20%, good income, good credit score to qualify for the lowest interest rates available! But that does not mean that other buyers that may be business owners, independent contractors cannot take advantage of the 40-yrs low interest rates.

Contact me, I will be more than happy to provide you with information to empower you!!! When the market is competitive, you have to prepare even more to the best buyer that it would be hard for sellers to refuse!

Got to know your options to make informed decision…

NICK PHAM
Real Estate & Mortgage Broker Since 2001
DRE: 01365281 | NMLS: 242768
408.425.5304 | WWW.NICKPHAM.COM

California Proposition 19

So now that Proposition 19 passed for California. What does it really mean to homeowners? While most of us are working on filing our income tax for 2020, (which is due May 17, 2021), it is important to plan your tax implication if you are considering selling/transfering your primary homes anytime in the future!

I must say: trying to understand the intricacies of Prop 19, while it was on the ballot was rather challenging! After having to help my parents transferring their assessed value after retirement using Prop 60/90, I was very eager to learn how Prop 19 changes all to all previous law that allow homeowner to transfer their assessed value of the primary home! Some may say that Prop 19 hurts many many homeowners. Some say it benefits homeowners than it hurts. what’s your opinion?

Here is a quick snapshot of what Prop 19 means to Californians! It is always best to consult with your tax advisor, your estate planning attorney for your specific financial situation. If you are planning to sell your home, upgrading, downsizing, or transferring it to your children, etc., CONTACT ME! I will be more than happy to further clarify your options to the best of my knowledge.

Nick Pham

One Year Later…

It was Mar 16, 2020 when the Stay in Place order was issued across Santa Clara County. Most believe a market crash will occur. So how did we do a year later?!?

Bay Area Real Estate Market likes many others, are still red hot! Now is still the best time to sell. Contact me for a FREE Market analysis for your property. No obligations whatsoever.

Nick Pham | 01365281 | 408.425.5304

#topsanjoserealtor #sanjoserealtor #sanjoserealestate #evergreenrealtor #markettrends #vietnameserealtor #nhàtui #vietnameseinsanjose

2021 Real Estate Prediction

First of all, I would like to send out prayers to friends, families and everyone near and far that have been impacted by COVID physically, mentally or financially.   Prayers to families that have loss their loved ones due to COVID!  It is not over yet.  So be safe and be well.

Most of us have survived 2020 and another election.  Most are wondering will everything  be better in 2021!   The economists are now busy predicting the US economy while the global pandemic has not slowed down, despite the fact that the COVID vaccines are now available.  Will we ever see everything “back-to-normal”?  What is the “new-norm”?  Will the local Bay Area Real Estate Market Crash or Boom?

Despite the pandemic, home prices in all major markets saw a rise, instead of a fall as most would expect. Santa Clara County home prices saw an increase in price and a steady demand for more homes. What caused this demand? Will this demand continue in 2021? The one major factor that helped fueled the sales was the low interest. We have heard of the 30-year low interest rates a few years ago. 2020 broke the record… Interest Rates hit an all-time low! Probably the lowest I would expect to see in my lifetime!

In 2020, we saw an active market beyond what we expected to happen during this global pandemic. Will the active 2020 active streak continue in 2021? With the country still dealing with many major changes, perhaps the Real Estate Market will continue to experience the changes. One thing for sure – only when interest rates go up, that homes prices will stabilize. I personally expect interest rate will continue to remain low, as our country continues to rebuild while we are still dealing with the pandemic. During 2020, we saw more home pending, sold than active. Was it a sign of a weak economy or a sign of hidden wealth?  The market performed beyond our expectation in 2020.  I expect this trend to continue into 2021 as I do not expect the major upside down decision from our law makers.  I do expect interest rate to remain low for the near future.

With the election out of the way and the increasing availability of the Vaccine, the forecast for our local market for 2021 is a continuing upward trend. The number of loan refinancing continue to be steady. the number of homes available is still low. It is still pretty much a seller’s market. And buyers are still taking advantage of the low interest rates.

Nick Pham | Broker | 01365281

2020 – A Year to Remember, A Year to Forget!

It has been 8 months since most of the country got shut down due to COVID-19. Our local economy seemed to stand still, as all businesses suffered from the Stay In Place order. Our real estate market has on the other hand been extremely active. The number of single family home remains low since through the summer in Santa Clara County. Inventory is typically higher during summer normally, as most families move while school is out.

With the interest rates remain an all time low, it definitely fueled the market in ways most of us couldn’t imagine. When most of the small businesses are shutdown, one has to wonder how the market remain so active.

When the number of homes pending/sold are more than active, it is definitely an active seller’s market! When will it slow down? Now that the election is over, do we expect the market to adjust? Perhaps, the market will correct itself once the vaccine is available!

One thing for sure – when interest rates goes up, home price will stabilize! In the meantime, it is very much a seller’s market as buyers are taking full advantage of the low interest rates!!!

Here is one additional graph unrelated to real estate. It is interesting to see how there are little correlation between COVID cases and the market!

Sellers, it is still the best time to sell! Call me for a free consultation. With interest rates as low as 2.125% for 15 years fixed and 2.625% for 30 years fixed, the best time is now…

Nick Pham | PN Real Estate Group | 408.425.5304

Love it or Hate it?!?

The real estate market in the Bay Area continues to be RED HOT… With all the unprecedented events that happened in 2020, Most people have been predicting a “crash” is near. What’s your predictions?

For Santa Clara County, Single Family Residence inventory remains extremely low. Summers have always been the most active times for realtors, 2020 proves no differences, even with the COVID-19 pandemic shutdown, Stay-In-Place orders, the riots, and the worst wildfires that California has even seen.

When the number home pendings are more than the number of actives, you know that there were a lot of competitions that went on for every homes listed for sale.

For our neighbors in the north, home in San Francisco are selling with multiple offers and over asking price. A home in the Parkside District listed for $995,000 were sold for $1.3M cash closed within 5 days. Another fixer upper in Richmond Neighborhood listed @ $1.6M, is pending @ over 2.1M.

You decide if this year election going will change the local real estate market! My personal educated recommendation – it will remain a super hot market, until you see the interest rate increase. Sellers, there are still many buyers out looking. They are all taking advantage of the super low interest rates. So really it is a WIN-WIN for both buyers and buyers.

Need a complimentary market analysis for your home or investments, feel free to contact me @ 408.425.5304.

Nick Pham | 01365281 | http://www.nickpham.com

DON’T BE FOOLED!!!

Recently you might have heard of advertisements of Mortgage Interest Rates for AS LOW AS 2.000% (15y-fixed) and 2.250% (30y-fixed) from some brokers – You wonder how these wonderful brokers can offer RATE THAT LOW… while the big banks like BOA or WF offer rates MUCH HIGHER @ 2.625% (15y-fixed) and 3.000% (30y-fixed).

Well you need to read the fine prints! What some brokers forget to mention is the fact you can “buy-down” the rate! Or pay for interest upfront to get the lower rate. Here is a slide that I had shared with many of my clients to help educate them. There are definitely benefits, but it will cost you! What’s right for you?!?

Call me to find out if you should “buy-down” the interest rate. How do you really get a fair comparison between one lender to another, one broker to another? Call me!

#nocovid #bettertogether #40yrslowinterestrate #sellersmarket #buyersmarket #mortgagebroker #sanjoserealestate #realtor #nickpham #bds

San Jose Real Estate Market vs COVID-19, cont…

A month after the first Stay In Place order was issued for almost across the US, most people were predicting that our Real Estate market will take a plunger. I have been monitoring market trend for as long as I have been been a realtor.

A lot of buyers have been predicting a market adjustment, as it has been long overdue since the last market crash since 2008. And the market has proven us wrong over and over, since. In my previous blogs, I have shared my personal thoughts that the housing market is not going to slow down anytime soon, especially the Bay Area! Several factors have contributed to the continuous growth including the increase of demand for space for employment growth from the local high-tech: Google, Facebook, Apple. Most of you are aware of the Google 80 acres San Jose Campus downtown, and the Apple 16.3 acres North San Jose expansion site. Several other major employers are coming to town!

No one has the crystal ball, but one fact remain true – DEMAND AND SUPPLY determine price!!! Have you seen all the developments and the majors purchase around town?

Don’t forget – Interest Rates is at an at time low. And while we are all still dealing with this major pandemic, the market has not shown anh signs of slowing down. All listings are sold with multiple offers within days… Sellers – it is your still your market! Buyers – with interest rate as low as 2.75%, you will never get this opportunity ever again. The money you save over the life-time of the loan is a Win-Win for you… Stay-tune for my future blogs for more valuable info.

Thinking of selling or buying, feel free to contact me for a FREE market analysis and/or a FREE pre-approval.

Nick Pham | 01365281 | 408.425.5304